I have been saying to my friends more than a week now that Jack Warner isn't going to win Chaguanas West, nor is he likely to even run for the seat as an Independent because politically, for both him and the UNC, it doesnt make sense. If Warner runs in this by-election it will be because of pride....not because it makes good political sense.
The PM, in between delivering comments that remind us of Paula Deen : " The PNM has chosen one of your children to come up against us. I ask you to show him the error of his ways and vote for UNC." just announced Khadija Ameen as the UNC's Chaguanas West candidate for the by-election.
I think lots of folks are hoping Warner will run as an Independent....but I doubt it.
Warner running as an Independent means UNC votes are split even further down the line. No PNM or marginal voter will stain their fingers in all good conscience...rather it will be die-hard UNC supporters willing to ignore all the corruption allegations in exchange for hand-outs and box drains.
Warner running effectively pits him against the party he finances and helped to bring to govt. Warner running against Ameen, puts him out of the UNC.....that would be playing into the hands of his detractors.....so, unless Warner has decided that he going to bring this government down....and that seems counterproductive to me, because it could lead to his undoing....I suspect that he will gran dcharge a little and then bow out of the by-election race.
Him bowing out does several things: it allows the UNC to be rid of the corruption albatross that is Warner, and to put a fresh face in Parliament that has no large corruption allegations attached to it. What folks will say about Ameen is that the is very inept at her job at the Tunapuna/Piarco Regional Corporation. We've all seen the video circulating of her asleep at a Regional Corporation meeting.
They might also tell you that her relationship with Warner goes back a long time....since her Guild Politics and LGE councillor days...So if Ameen wins the seat.....it's almost as if Warner won it....almost.
What I'm not sure about though is what will Jack do? Will he go quietly into that good night? And if so, is that a good thing or bad?
What I do know is this...UNC cant afford to lose this seat. The fight going to be messy and nasty....Kamla has fired her first "We Vs Them" Salvo and it is openly prejudiced. It's Calcutta Ship all over again.
If Warner runs....he has cut ties with the party.
If he doesnt....this is all part of a larger strategy to clean up the party's name.
Prepare for a month of Full Dotish!